“Why the IPCC Special Report is a Call to Action”

By James Snook

Executive Summary:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) advocates an urgent timeline of 2020-2030 as a call to action for those that support social justice and environmental justice.  While it is possible to remain within the small remaining global carbon budget through a global transformation, annual global emissions would need to be reduced immediately and dramatically by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5oC.  Limiting global warming to 1.5oC would “reduce the risk to several hundred million people by 2050 including flooding, food scarcity, superstorms, deadly heat, and widespread disease.  The 2019 IPCC Special Report concluded that every tenth of a degree toward reaching a half degree more of warming would mean substantially more poverty, extreme heat, sea level rise, habitat loss, and drought.  At 1.5oC, the number of people across the globe at risk of inadequate water supplies could be 50% lower than at 2oC (IPCC Special Report, 2019).  However, limiting global warming to 1.5oC requires decreasing carbon pollution by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, plus the world would need to reach net zero emissions by 2050” (The Natural Resources Defense Council, 2019).  

Climate Science is Settled in the USA by NASA: 

Within the USA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has provided a website to provide clear evidence that the science is settled and provides a community of scientists that advocate for climate action.  NASA states that “multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that 97% or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree that climate warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities”.  A statement from eighteen scientific associations says that “observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver” (NASA, 2020).  The Climate Reality Project says that the science is settled and it confirmed that: there’s only one conclusion:  humans are the primary reason the planet is warming and we see our climate changing today” (The Climate Reality Project, 2020).  As humans are the primary reason for causing global warming and climate change, humans are the only inhabitants that can solve the problem by preventing or minimizing the source.  The exact amount of influence that humans are imposing is where the academic and scientific community provides important peer-reviewed information in a transparent manner.  

Summary of the IPCC Reports: 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change.  The IPCC does not conduct its own research and the IPCC reports are neutral, poly-relevant but not policy-prescriptive.  The IPCC has concluded that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as the atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished and sea level has risen.  The IPCC states that “human interference with the climate is occurring and climate change poses risks for humans and natural systems. Five integrated reasons for concern (RFCs) include 1) unique and threatened systems, 2) extreme weather events, 3) distribution of impacts, 4) global aggregate impacts, and 5) large-scale singular events” (IPCC, 2014).  
 

In 1988, the IPCC was created with 195 United Nations countries by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In 1990, IPCC’s First Assessment Report (FAR) requested international cooperation to address climate change.  In 1995, IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (SAR) provided materials to governments to prepare for the Kyoto Protocol in 1997.  In 2001, IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) focused attention on the impacts of climate change and the need for adaptation.  In 2007, IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focused on limiting warming to 2oC through a post- Kyoto agreement. In 2014, IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provided scientific input into the Paris Agreement.  The IPCC is currently preparing a Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) for release in 2022 (IPCC, 2019).  

The Paris Agreement:

The 2015 Paris Agreement adoption was an effort by the United Nations to target global warming well below 2oC and make efforts to keep warming within 1.5oC.  In 2017, the global carbon emissions hit an all-time high of 41 gigatons, after three years of plateauing, due to higher energy demand and a slowdown in investment in energy efficient measures (The Natural Resources Defense Council, 2019).  In response to the Paris Agreement, the IPCC provided a 2019 Special Report on the impacts of Global Warming of 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (IPCC Special Report, 2019).  

The 2019 IPCC Special Report:

The 2019 IPCC Special Report is an assessment of the relevant state of knowledge from over 6,000 published articles, based on the scientific and technical literature available up to May 25, 2018.  Extensive personnel of experts contribute to the IPCC’s independence, as 541 experts were nominated for the author team, with 74 coordinating lead authors, plus 17 review editors, plus 133 contributing authors of technical expertise.  The enthusiastic participation of the scientific community and governments to the review process resulted in 42,001 written review comments submitted by 796 individual expert reviewers and 65 governments (IPCC Special Report, 2019).  

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The IPCC Report provides four mitigation scenarios, which in effect provides further evidence of the severity of climate change anticipated globally.  None of the four scenarios provided by IPCC would allow for continued long-term investment in fossil fuel infrastructure, thereby minimizing on of the primary sources of greenhouse gases.  Instead, the IPCC recommends an increase in renewable solar and wind energy, which it considers to be “technically possible and economically feasible” (The Natural Resources Defense Council, 2019).  Unfortunately, even if the Paris Agreement pledges for 2030 are achieved, “warming will still exceed 1.50C for a period of time, requiring global emission reduction technologies to reduce it to 1.50C” (IPCC Special Report, 2019).  Many of the IPCC’s scenarios rely on “negative emissions technologies” which remove carbon pollution from the atmosphere and store it, including the controversial concept of Bioenergy Coupled with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS).  The IPCC indicates that BECCS technology would require a huge amount of land, such as half of the United States, in order to grow plants that could trap enough carbon, crowding out ecosystems and leaving less room for food production (IPCC Special Report, 2019).  
 

Conclusions: 

The IPCC makes it clear that doing everything we can to reach the 1.50C limit will help to prevent deadly consequences for millions around the world, particularly those living in developing countries and nations vulnerable to political instability.  The IPCC forecasts with high confidence that climate change will “exacerbate health problems by 2050, reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources in most dry subtropic regions, while decreasing food security, including food access, utilization, and price stability.  Major future rural impacts are expected in the near term and beyond through impacts on water availability and supply, food security, and agricultural incomes” (IPCC, 2014).

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Even if every country in the Paris Agreements hits the emissions target, the world would still see between 2.6 and 3.2 degrees of warming by 2100 (The Natural Resources Defense Council, 2019).  The United States, the second-biggest carbon polluter (after China), had previously withdrawn from the Paris Agreement under the Trump administration.  However, with a readoption of the Paris Accord under a Biden Administration, the IPCC Special Report is a call to action for Americans to change their practices from 2020 to 2030 toward a more sustainable society and also provide advanced technology that will improve the IPCC proposed remedies.